The Big Box Outlook: West Midlands industrial market update

The West Midlands continues to play a central role in the UK’s logistics and industrial property market, with its strong connectivity, skilled workforce and strategic position within the “Golden Triangle” making it a natural home for big-box warehousing and distribution.

However, like the rest of the UK, the region’s big shed market is facing a period of transition as developers, occupiers and investors navigate a cooling economy, rising build costs, and a renewed policy focus on advanced manufacturing and green energy.

Carole Taylor, Regional Managing Partner (Midlands and North) and industrial property expert at Vail Williams LLP, explores the latest trends in the big box market – from the demand and supply dynamic, to what the future will bring.

A cooling market – but resilient core demand

After a bumper period during and immediately after the pandemic, take-up of large industrial units (100,000 sq ft and above) in the West Midlands has slowed in 2025.

The first half of the year saw around 1.4 million sq ft transacted across just eight deals – a 46% drop compared to the same period last year, and nearly 30% below the long-term H1 average.

This reflects a broader national slowdown, with occupiers taking longer to make decisions and fewer large requirements coming to market.

Yet, despite this dip in activity, the market remains resilient.

There is still strong interest from core occupier sectors, particularly third-party logistics (3PL) operators, grocery retailers and advanced manufacturers – all of whom value the region’s access to major road and rail infrastructure, including the M6, M42, and freight hubs like Prologis Hams Hall, DIRFT and Birch Coppice.

International logistics platforms and onshoring manufacturers have also helped underpin demand, particularly for high-quality, sustainable stock.

Supply building – but limited in the largest size bands

As take-up has slowed, availability has started to climb. There is currently around 9 million sq ft of big-box space on the market across over 40 units in the West Midlands – a significant increase on last year.

Encouragingly, nearly 70% of this is Grade A space, either new or recently refurbished, which reflects both the investment that has gone into speculative development over recent years and the growing importance of ESG credentials to occupiers.

However, while headline numbers suggest a good level of supply, the reality is a little more nuanced.

Most of the available units are under 300,000 sq ft, with little to no options currently on the market above 500,000 sq ft. This represents a potential barrier for major national or international operations seeking regional distribution centres in the West Midlands.

Moreover, developers remain cautious: only seven units are currently under construction, totalling 1.5 million sq ft, with most falling below the 300,000 sq ft threshold. Just two of these are due to complete in 2026, pointing to a modest pipeline of big box supply overall.

Key hubs: From Coventry to Cannock

The West Midlands’ industrial market is defined by its distribution hotspots, many of which cluster around key motorway junctions and rail terminals.

Coventry, Birmingham, Wolverhampton, Nuneaton, and Tamworth remain at the heart of the region’s logistics map, while sites like Hams Hall, Birch Coppice and Prologis Park Ryton continue to attract large-scale investment.

These hubs benefit not only from proximity to key urban centres and labour pools, but also from their role in the national supply chain – particularly for retail and e-commerce operators.

Looking ahead, attention is turning to emerging sites such as Coventry & Warwick Gigapark, which forms part of the West Midlands Investment Zone

These sites could provide much-needed new stock in future years, especially as demand from green tech and battery manufacturing companies grows.

Industrial strategy and future supply

The UK Government’s new Industrial Strategy, alongside the designation of the  West Midlands Investment Zone, is expected to shape the region’s future development pipeline.

With a focus on advanced manufacturing, decarbonisation and skills, the policy environment increasingly favours sites that can offer high-spec, power-ready space for clean growth industries.

For the big shed market, this presents both opportunities and constraints.

On the one hand, investment in infrastructure and streamlined planning within the Investment Zone could help unlock new development land.

On the other, the growing demand for data centre sites – which compete for the same grid-connected land – may restrict the availability of large plots for logistics and distribution in the medium term.

What should occupiers expect?

For occupiers seeking large, well-located industrial space in the West Midlands, 2025 is a year of careful property strategy.

While there is more stock on the market than a year ago, choice remains limited at the top end of the size range, and the best buildings continue to command premium rents.

Developers remain cautious, and speculative development is unlikely to keep pace with future demand unless economic conditions improve or public-private initiatives accelerate delivery.

In this environment, speed and flexibility are key. Businesses able to make swift decisions and commit to longer leases will be best placed to secure high-quality accommodation before rents climb further or supply tightens again.

With the region’s strategic strengths still firmly in place, the West Midlands remains one of the UK’s most compelling locations for logistics – but as we look ahead to 2026, a more nuanced and proactive approach is required to stay ahead of the market.