Residential Property Market Autumn Update 2025

As the leaves turn and the property market moves into its final quarter of the year, the sense across the UK housing landscape is one of steady pragmatism.

After a summer marked by cautious optimism, the autumn period has brought with it a degree of realism — prices are holding steady, activity levels have cooled slightly, and both buyers and sellers are taking a more measured approach amid continued uncertainty around the economy and forthcoming tax changes.

The market has shifted from summer’s cautious optimism to steady-but-subdued momentum as buyers await November’s Budget and watch rates and inflation.

Pricing is broadly flat to gently positive year-on-year, activity is patchy by region, and rental growth is cooling but still elevated, as Head of Residential Property, Gary Jeffries, explores the latest residential property market trends.

Market steadies after Spring activity boost

After a flurry of activity in April triggered by the Government’s reversal of stamp duty thresholds, Q2 has seen the market settle into a more measured pace, underpinned by an unseasonable summer boost.

Although this short-term stimulus provided a welcome boost to transaction volumes, much of that demand appears to have been pulled forward, and we are now in a period of consolidation.

RICS’ June market survey shows new buyer enquiries just tipping into positive territory for the first time since the end of last year.

Agreed sales also continue to recover, albeit at a more subdued rate. Importantly, forward-looking indicators suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook, with sales expectations for the next three months turning modestly positive.

House price growth has mirrored this pattern. Following a dip in June, July saw a modest 0.6% uplift according to Nationwide, with annual house price growth now sitting around 2.4%.

This points to a market gradually adjusting to the new interest rate environment, rather than one in full retreat.

A market catching its breath

According to the latest data from Rightmove, average asking prices in October edged up by just 0.3% – the smallest autumn rise since 2008 and well below the seasonal norm of around 1.1%. According to Halifax, the average home now sits at £298,184, down slightly on the month prior, but +1.3% on last year’s figures.

This subdued movement reflects what many in the market have observed first-hand: buyers remain active, but cautious, waiting to see how the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget might reshape property taxation and, in turn, affordability.

Meanwhile, the major lenders have offered mixed readings. As mentioned above, Halifax reported a 0.3% monthly fall in September, meanwhile Nationwide recorded a 0.5% rise in house prices, representing a 2.2% annual increase on last year’s figures. Both indices show annual growth hovering around 2%, suggesting a market that’s neither falling back significantly nor ready to accelerate just yet.

According to provisional Land Registry data, UK house prices rose 2.8% year-on-year in July, taking the average value to just under £292,000 – a modest increase, but a welcome sign of stability after the volatility of 2023 and early 2024.

Seasonally adjusted residential transactions are also holding up reasonably well. HMRC’s most recent figures show 95,980 transactions completed in September – an increase of 1% on August, and 4% higher than September 2024. This is a sign that, whilst confidence has softened slightly, the market remains open for business.

Regional differences come to the fore

Regionally, the story is increasingly varied.

The North East continues to lead on annual price growth, up around 7-8% year-on-year, driven by relative affordability and strong local economies. The Midlands and North West have also performed well, with modest but steady gains.

In contrast, London and the South East remain subdued, with prices broadly flat and activity levels constrained at the upper end of the market. Here, concerns over potential changes to stamp duty (SDLT) and capital gains tax (CGT) have led many higher-value transactions to be paused.

Scotland and Wales have enjoyed slightly stronger momentum, with annual growth of 3-4%, reflecting ongoing lifestyle demand and the continued appeal of semi-rural locations with good connectivity.

The rental picture: easing but resilient

In the lettings market, growth remains robust, albeit easing from the double-digit increases of 2023. ONS data shows average private rents in England up around 5.7% year-on-year to August 2025, with the strongest increases in northern regions.

However, while tenant demand has stabilised, the number of new landlord instructions is falling, suggesting supply-side pressures will continue to underpin rental values into 2026.

For investors, the focus has shifted firmly toward yield management, energy efficiency upgrades, and tenant retention as routes to sustaining return on investment.

Outlook: a modest 2026 ahead

Looking ahead, and subject to any surprise announcements in the Autumn Statement, most analysts agree that 2026 will be a year of modest recovery.

Forecasts point to UK-wide house price growth of 2-4% next year, with the potential to edge higher if mortgage rates begin to ease faster than expected.

With this in mind, we predict low single-digit growth in 2026, strengthening slightly in 2026, while Capital Economics projects a more optimistic 5% uplift should interest rates fall more decisively.

That said, the consensus is clear: Growth will be steady, not spectacular, and regional variation will remain pronounced. Northern regions, Scotland, and Wales are likely to continue outperforming, while southern markets may see only limited gains.

What this means for buyers, sellers and investors

For buyers, particularly first-time purchasers, the current environment offers an opportunity to negotiate on price and secure well-valued homes – particularly where sellers are motivated.

For sellers, pricing accurately remains crucial: Homes listed too optimistically risk stagnating, while those aligned with market sentiment are still attracting good levels of interest.

Investors should expect stable yields and slower capital growth, with the emphasis shifting from speculative appreciation to asset quality and operational efficiency.

Meanwhile, energy performance (EPCs), condition, and compliance with forthcoming MEES standards will continue to be key differentiators in both valuation and ‘lettability’.

From turbulence to balance

The UK residential market has moved from turbulence to balance.

While not yet firing on all cylinders, it has proved resilient in the face of persistent inflation, higher borrowing costs, and political uncertainty.

As we head into 2026, the watchwords are stability and selectivity. Growth will likely be modest, but for those taking a long-term view, opportunities remain – particularly in well-connected regional markets where value and fundamentals still align.

Whether you’re acquiring, disposing, valuing or repositioning stock, our residential team can benchmark pricing and viability in your target sub-markets and build 2026 scenarios around this. Get in touch with our residential property experts for more information.